Danial Ventures · Internal Memorandum
Pump.fun
A ring-fenced speculative position. Fees charged on other people's speculation, half of them spent buying back the supply. Held for a cycle, sized to zero, and sold rather than kept.
The first two memos argue for keeping something. This one argues for accepting that we might lose it. Pump.fun is a launchpad for memecoins: it charges a fee on other people’s speculation and spends about half of that revenue buying its own token back off the market and destroying it. That is the whole mechanism, and it is the only reason this entry is in the ledger rather than in a story.
It is listed third and labelled speculative because it is neither of the things above it. KodeData is a business we run. Bitcoin is a reserve we keep. This is a position we intend to sell.
Thesis
The revenue is real and can be checked by a stranger.
Fees settle on a public chain, so the figure is not something the issuer reports about itself. That single property is what separates this from the category it otherwise belongs to, where the number either does not exist or only the issuer can see it. We would not hold it without that.
The buyback reaches a holder who does nothing.
Roughly half of revenue is used to buy the token and burn it. There is no staking to join and no lock-up to accept: the supply falls, so the same holding becomes a larger share of the whole. Several competitors advertise a similar headline and pay it only to people who lock their tokens up, which is a different offer wearing the same words.
The float still grows, and we count it.
Tokens continue to unlock on a published monthly schedule into 2029, and the burn only partly offsets them. Net of both, the supply is still rising a few percent a year. A burn that is smaller than its own issuance is a marketing line, so this is measured every month rather than assumed.
Risk
The revenue is the cycle. It ends when the cycle does.
This business earns when people speculate on memecoins. That activity is not a trend, it is a phase, and the fee line falls with it. Every favourable number on this page was measured during a period when people were trading; none of them describes a quiet market.
The category has no record of winning.
Measured across a full cycle, tokens of this kind have lost to simply holding Bitcoin, close to without exception. We hold this one because of the mechanism above, not because the category rewards patience. It does not.
Legal and platform risk sit on top.
The platform is the subject of civil litigation characterising it as unlicensed gambling, and its revenue depends on one chain and one kind of user. Either could change without warning, and neither is something we can hedge.
Rules
Sized so that zero changes nothing.
The position is capped in rupiah, not as a percentage, so it cannot grow with the portfolio. Money for it comes from income. It is never funded by selling either of the positions above, and it is never topped up because it has fallen.
It is sold. That is the difference.
Bitcoin has no exit contemplated. This one does, and it is dated: the intent is to sell into the peak of this cycle. A speculative position that quietly becomes a long-term holding because it went against us is the single most expensive habit available here, and writing the exit down in advance is how it is avoided.
Three conditions end it early, regardless of price.
Annual revenue falling below roughly a sixth of its current run rate; the share of revenue directed to the buyback being cut; or an adverse legal outcome. Any one of them closes the position, and the remaining allocation goes to Bitcoin.
Held in a personal portfolio, on an exchange, outside self-custody — which is itself a risk the two positions above do not carry, and is accepted only because the position is small and temporary.
Nothing here is advice. It is a record of what is held and why, kept so that the reasoning can be checked later against what happened.